50/50 June?

Since 1950, the Dow has been up 33 times in the month of June and down 32 times. Will the Dow go back to even after this month? Still way above the Mendoza line. 

Intro: Investors have a busy week ahead highlighted by Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment. OPEC is also set to meet at the end of the week

Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate: On Friday (6/5), Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate are released. Traders will be looking to the results as a measure of the strength of the U.S. economy. Should payrolls jump and the unemployment rate go lower, it may give ammo for the Fed to increase rates sooner than later

Greece: Greece has another debt payment to the IMF due on Friday (6/5) with most of the world skeptical on whether Greece will be able to pay its creditors. Should Greece fail to pay its debt obligation, expect global markets to trade lower and a reaction in the currency markets

Big Data Filled Week: This week has a ton of data from across the globe. In addition to the Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls, domestically we will see ISM Index, Factory Orders, Consumer Credit and Wholesale Inventories

PMI Readings: PMI readings from across the globe are due out this week. We should continue to see some positive readings as global markets have been far outpacing domestic markets this year. If we see this trend continue, we could expect to see additional capital flow in to their respective economies

OPEC: On Friday June 5th OPEC members gather in Vienna. Traders will be listening to its members for changes to the cartels output. Should the cartel decide to lower output, we can expect the price of oil to increase. Should they decide to keep output levels constant, we can expect either prices to drop or the status quo. Analysts at the moment are expecting no change of policy from its members

   Oil Rigs: Last week, the number of rigs drilling for oil in U.S. oilfields fell by 13 lowering the total to 646. This is the 25th consecutive week of declines. On the news, oil jumped 5% for the day. Traders will watch to see the if Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count lowers again, which could put upward pressure on the price of oil

 

MONDAY (6/1)

  • 8:30 AM ET – Personal Income - Apr
  • 8:30 AM ET – Personal Spending – Apr
  • 10:00 AM ET – ISM Index - May
  • 10:00 AM ET – Construction Spending - Apr
  • China Manufacturing PMI
  • China HSBC Manufacturing PMI
  • Japan Final Manufacturing PMI
  • Australia Building Approvals
  • European Final Manufacturing PMI
  • Great Britain Manufacturing PM 

 

TUESDAY (6/2)

  • 10:00 AM ET – Factory Orders - Mar
  • 2:00 PM ET – Auto Sales – May
  • Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Statement
  • Italian banks are closed in observance of National Day
  • Great Britain Construction PMI
  • European CPI Flash Estimate
  • New Zealand GDT Price Index

 

WEDNESDAY (6/3)

  • 8:15 AM ET – ADP Employment Change - Apr
  • 8:30 AM ET - Trade Balance - Mar
  • 10:00 AM ET – ISM Services - Apr
  • 10:30 AM ET – Crude Oil Inventories
  • 2:00 PM ET – Fed’s Beige Book – June
  • Australian GDP
  • China HSBC Services PMI
  • Great Britain Services PMI
  • ECB Press Conference

 

THURSDAY (6/4)

  • 7:30 AM ET - Challenger Job Cuts - Apr
  • 8:30 AM ET - Weekly Jobless Claims
  • 8:30 AM ET - Productivity - 1Q
  • Australia Retail Sales
  • Bank of England MPC Rate Statement
  • Canada Ivey PMI
  • FOMC Member Daniel Tarullo Speaks

 

FRIDAY (6/5)

  • 8:30 AM ET - Nonfarm Payrolls - May
  • 8:30 AM ET - Unemployment Rate - May
  • 8:30 AM ET – Hourly Earnings - May
  • 3:00 PM ET – Consumer Credit - Apr
  • OPEC Meetings
  • FOMC Member William Dudley Speaks