Whose Proxy Is It Anyway

Intro: Investors will be looking toward a very busy week ahead including Non-Farm Payrolls, and Unemployment. Additionally economic data on this week’s calendar include Chicago PMI, Personal Income, Personal Spending and Pending Home Sales during the holiday shortened week

NonFarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate: On Friday (4/3), Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate are released. However, US markets ae closed in observance of Good Friday. Because of the timing, the markets should expect to see investors positioning themselves during Thursdays session as we go into the holiday weekend

FOMC Speeches: Multiple FOMC members will again be giving speeches throughout the week. Investors will be listening to their speeches for hints as to the timing of rate rises and their new interest rate trajectory. Any hints as to timing has the potential to see yields spike higher

US Dollar and Earnings: In the previous week, U.S. multi nationals cut their earnings forecast on the soaring US Dollar pushing certain stocks lower. Traders will watch to see if additional firms cut their forecasts as earnings season kicks in later this month

PMI Readings: A number of Manufacturing PMI readings across the globe will be released over the week. If we see these readings come in lower than expected, this could be additional ammo for central banks to ease monetary policy

Personal Spending: On Monday 3/30, data on Personal Spending is released. If readings come in higher than expected, traders will equate it with the drop in oil prices which has put more money in people’s pockets. If readings come in lower than expected, traders will blame the harsh winter. Expect consumer discretionary stocks to react in one way or the other  

Geo Political Risk: Last week oil spiked higher on reports that Saudi Arabia launched air strikes in Yemen. If tensions escalate, we have the potential for oil prices to go significantly higher. This could have mixed results for the market as we would see Energy and Aerospace & Defense companies higher while other sectors move lower on geo political concerns

Nuclear Talks: Negotiations between Iran and the six-nation group led by the US are reaching their March 31st deadline. If some of the sanctions are lifted, we could see an additional million barrels hit the market further pushing the price of crude lower. Conversely, the recent turmoil in Yemen could complicate the talks as Iran’s proxy armies are fighting US allies Saudi Arabia and Egypt 

Wild Card: This week, Greece is set to submit a list of economic reforms to secure bailout aid from its creditors If its creditors do not approve Greece’s new policies, we have the potential for another global market sell off and further depreciating of the Euro 

 

MONDAY (3/30)

  • 10:00 AM ET – Personal Income - Feb
  • 10:00 AM ET – Personal Spending - Feb
  • 10:00 AM ET – Pending Home Sales - Feb
  • German Prelim CPI

 

TUESDAY (3/31)

  • 9:45 AM ET - Chicago PMI – Mar
  • 10:00 AM ET – Consumer Confidence - Mar
  • Federal Reserve Governor Stanley Fischer Speaks
  • ANZ Business Confidence
  • Great Britain Current Account
  • European CPI Flash Estimate
  • Canada GDP
  • FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks

 

WEDNESDAY (4/1)

  • 8:15 AM ET – ADP Employment Change - Mar
  • 10:00 AM ET – Construction Spending - Feb
  • 10:00 AM ET – ISM Index - Mar
  • 10:30 AM ET – Crude Oil Inventories
  • 5:00 PM ET – Auto Sales – Mar
  • China Manufacturing PMI
  • China HSBC Manufacturing PMI
  • Japan Final Manufacturing PMI
  • European Final Manufacturing PMI
  • Great Britain Final Manufacturing PMI
  • Australia Building Approvals
  • FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks
  • Earnings: Monsanto

 

THURSDAY (4/2)

  • 7:30 AM ET - Challenger Job Cuts - Mar
  • 8:30 AM ET - Weekly Jobless Claims
  • 8:30 AM ET – Trade Balance - Feb
  • 10:00 AM ET – Factory Orders - Feb
  • New Zealand GDT
  • Great Britain Construction PMI
  • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
  • Earnings: Micron

 

FRIDAY (4/3)

  • 8:30 AM ET - Nonfarm Payrolls - Mar
  • 8:30 AM ET - Unemployment Rate – Mar
  • 8:30 AM ET – Hourly Earnings - Mar
  • Most global markets including the US and Europe are closed in observance of Good Friday
  • China HSBC Services PMI