WWJD What Would Janet Do???

+  Intro: Investors will be turning their attention to the Fed as we watch the Euro’s march to parity against the US Dollar. Domestically Empire Manufacturing, Industrials Production, Housing Starts and Building Permits are on this week’s calendar

+  Fed & Rate Fears: On Wednesday 3/16, the Fed will release a statement where everybody will be waiting to see if the phrase “patient” stays in the statement. If the Fed is to change their language, expect significant volatility following the statement release and a better time frame as to when the Fed will raise interest rates. Some of the results of an interest rate increase include a strengthening in the US Dollar, a spike in Utilities & Financial companies, a weakening of foreign currencies, oil and metals. We would also see mortgage rates go up as Treasury yields will increase

+  DOW and S&P: The Dow and S&P were negative for the third week in a row around the continued strengthening of the US dollar hurting multi-national’s earnings overseas and the uncertainty regarding the Fed’s upcoming statement. Results of the statement will likely dictate how the market will trade for the rest of the week. Should the result of the statement expect an increase in interest rates in the near future, expect markets to fall lower for the fourth week in a row. Conversely, should the Fed decide to delay the rise in interest rates, expect the markets to rally

+  Euro Stimulus: So far, the Eurozone Bond buying program has resulted in record low yields, a continued strengthening of the US Dollar, and the Euro now being within 5% of parity with the Dollar. Conversely, European markets were up for the first week of the bond buying program. Traders will watch to see if the bond buying program continues to push yields and the Euro even lower while raising European markets higher

+  Oil: Last week oil hit a new low for the year. Conversely, the US oil rig count fell to its lowest level since March 2011 while oil continued to fall. The strengthening of the US dollar has also helped to lower the price of Brent crude as Brent is priced in Dollars. Traders will continue to monitor the price of oil and watch for a bottom. Rig counts will also be watched as every rig employs a number of people

+  Currency Wars: In the ongoing battle for countries to loosen monetary policy, the Bank of Thailand and Bank of Korea lowered interest rates last week. Traders will be watching to see which central bank takes steps to further weaken their currency

+  Housing Starts: After a weaker than expected retail sales number last week, which the market blamed on the harsh winter weather, traders will be watching to see if Housing Starts also come in weaker than expected, which will ultimately also be blamed on the weather  

+  Wild Card: Continuing negotiations between Iran and the six-nation group led by the US over Iran’s nuclear program will be watched closely by the investor community. Any deal with Iran would likely result in an easing of sanctions which would allow Iran to export additional oil, further pushing the price of crude lower

 

MONDAY (3/16)

  • 8:30 AM ET – Empire Manufacturing - Mar
  • 8:30 AM ET – Industrial Production – Feb
  • 8:30 AM ET – Capacity Utilization – Feb
  • ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

 

TUESDAY (3/17)

  • 8:30 AM ET – Housing Starts – Feb
  • 8:30 AM ET – Building Permits – Feb
  • Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • European Final CPI
  • Canada Manufacturing Sales
  • New Zealand GDT Price Index
  • Earnings: Oracle, Adobe

 

 

WEDNESDAY (3/18)

  • 10:30 AM ET – Crude Oil Inventories
  • 2:00 PM ET – FOMC Statement
  • 2:30 PM ET – FOMC Press Conference
  • Bank of Japan Trade Balance
  • Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Bank Rate Votes
  • Canada Wholesales
  • Earnings; FedEx, General Mills 

 

THURSDAY (3/19)

  • 8:30 AM ET - Weekly Jobless Claims
  • 10:00 AM ET – Philadelphia Fed - Mar
  • 10:00 AM ET – Leading Indicators - Feb
  • New Zealand GDP
  • Swiss National Bank Libor Rate
  • Swiss National Bank Press Conference
  • ECB Targeted LTRO
  • EU Economic Summit
  • Earnings: Nike

 

FRIDAY (3/20)

  • Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks
  • Canada Core CPI and Retail Sales