WWJD IV

What Would Janet Do???? Last Chance To Raise Rates This Year For the First Time in 9 Years

 

+  Intro: Investors have an important week ahead as they turn their attention away from oil and over to the FED. On the economic calendar Building Permits, CPI and Empire Manufacturing are scheduled to report 

+  Fed & Rate Fears: On Wednesday 12/16, the Fed will release a statement where everybody will be waiting to see if they decide to raise rates. If the Fed does raise rates, we can expect to see significant volatility following the statement release. Some of the results of an interest rate increase include a strengthening in the US Dollar, a spike in Utilities & Financial companies, a weakening of foreign currencies, oil and metals. We would also see mortgage rates go up as Treasury yields will increase. If they decide not to raise rates, traders will look for hints as to the timing of a rate hike. A press conference will follow the announcement with FOMC Chair Janet Yellen taking questions

+  Oil: In the previous week, we watched West Texas Crude and Brent Crude continue to fall to seven year lows, and now approach 11 year lows. Investors will watch to see if oil can fall even further with the over-supply. Should oil fall further, we will see energy firms and the companies that transport oil fall, with airlines and consumer discretionary stocks rising. However, for the US consumer, some of the money being saved at the pump is going to additional health care costs mandated by Obamacare  

 

MONDAY (12/14)

  • No significant economic news scheduled to be released

 

TUESDAY (12/15)

  • 8:30 AM ET – CPI – Nov
  • 8:30 AM ET – Empire Manufacturing – Dec
  • Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • Great Britain CPI
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • Canada Manufacturing Sales
  • Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks

 

WEDNESDAY (12/16)

  • 8:30 AM ET – Housing Starts – Nov
  • 8:30 PM ET – Building Permits - Nov
  • 9:15 AM ET - Industrial Production - Nov
  • 9:15 AM ET - Capacity Utilization - Nov
  • 10:30AM ET – Crude Oil Inventories
  • 2:00 PM ET – FOMC Rate Decision
  • 2:30 PM ET – FOMC Press Conference
  • European Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • European Flash Services PMI
  • New Zealand GDT Price Index
  • Great Britain Unemployment Rate
  • Earnings: Oracle, FedEx

 

THURSDAY (12/17)

  • 8:30 AM ET - Weekly Jobless Claims
  • 8:30 AM ET – Current Account Balance – Q3
  • 8:30 AM ET – Philadelphia Fed – Dec
  • 10:00 AM ET – Leading Indicators – Nov
  •  New Zealand GDP
  • German IFO Business Climate
  • Great Britain Retail Sales
  • Earnings: Accenture, General Mills  

 

FRIDAY (12/18)  

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Business Confidence
  • Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference
  • Canada Core CPI